Climate Adaptive Response Estimation: Short and long run impacts of climate change on residential electricity and natural gas consumption
提出两阶段估计方法CARE，利用近20亿份能源账单数据，估计加州居民电力和天然气需求的气候损害函数，发现忽略适应性调整会低估未来电力消费影响，而天然气需求减少可抵消电力增长。
This paper proposes a simple two-step estimation method (Climate Adaptive Response Estimation - CARE) to estimate sectoral climate damage functions, which account for long-run adaptation. The paper applies this method in the context of residential electricity and natural gas demand for the world’s fifth largest economy — California. The advantage of the proposed method is that it only requires detailed information on intensive margin behavior, yet does not require explicit knowledge of the extensive margin response (e.g., technology adoption). Using almost two billion energy bills, we estimate spatially highly disaggregated intensive margin temperature response functions using daily variation in weather. In a second step, we explain variation in the slopes of the dose response functions across space as a function of summer climate. Using 18 climate models, we simulate future demand by letting households vary consumption along the intensive and extensive margins. We show that failing to account for extensive margin adjustment in electricity demand leads to a significant underestimate of the future impacts on electricity consumption. We further show that reductions in natural gas demand more than offset any climate-driven increases in electricity consumption in this context.