Oil prices, gasoline prices, and inflation expectations
研究发现汽油价格波动解释了家庭一年期通胀预期42%的变动，2009年初至2013年初通胀预期的累积上升几乎完全由汽油价格意外上涨驱动，但并未支持汽油价格改善菲利普斯曲线拟合度的观点。
Summary It has long been suspected, given the salience of gasoline prices, that fluctuations in gasoline prices shift households' 1‐year inflation expectations. Assessing this view empirically requires the use of dynamic structural models to quantify the cumulative effect of gasoline price shocks on household inflation expectations at each point in time. We find that, on average, gasoline price shocks account for 42% of the variation in these expectations. The cumulative increase in household inflation expectations from early 2009 to early 2013, in particular, is almost entirely explained by unexpectedly rising gasoline prices. However, there is no support for the view that the improved fit of the Phillips curve augmented by household inflation expectations during 2009–2013 is mainly explained by rising gasoline prices.