Unknowns, Black Swans, and Bounded Rationality in Public Organizations
本文梳理了公共管理文献中“未知”和“黑天鹅”的不同用法，提出分类框架，并用四个案例（挑战者号、9/11、阿富汗撤军、丹麦漫画抵制）说明黑天鹅的四种类型，最后建议公共组织如何减少阻碍发现未知的心理和组织障碍。
Abstract “Unknowns” and “Black Swans” have become familiar terms in the public administration literature but tend to be used in different and often conflicting ways. This article provides a typology of the terms, develops a framework for thinking about how their elements relate, and distinguishes four varieties of the Black Swan. Using the Challenger Space Shuttle disaster, 9/11, the international withdrawal from Afghanistan, and the trade boycott associated with the Danish cartoon controversy as examples, we examine how these four varieties may arise in public sector organizations. We offer recommendations on how such organizations might reduce psychological and organizational barriers to uncovering unknowns before they can go on to become Black Swans.