A Semistructural Methodology for Policy Counterfactuals
提出一种构建政策规则变化反事实的方法，无需完全指定特定模型，但不受卢卡斯批判影响，适用于均衡可由线性表示近似的一类动态随机模型。
I propose a methodology for constructing counterfactuals with respect to changes in policy rules that does not require fully specifying a particular model yet is not subject to Lucas critique. It applies to a class of dynamic stochastic models whose equilibria are well approximated by a linear representation. It rests on the insight that many such models satisfy a principle of counterfactual equivalence: they are observationally equivalent under a benchmark policy and yield an identical counterfactual equilibrium under an alternative one.