时变降秩回归的状态空间方法

A state-space approach to time-varying reduced-rank regression

Econometric Reviews · 2022
被引 1
人大 A-ABS 3

中文导读

提出一种允许回归系数随时间变化的降秩回归新方法,基于卡尔曼滤波和EM算法估计,在模拟和股票指数、新冠病例数据应用中表现良好。

Abstract

We propose a new approach to reduced-rank regression that allows for time-variation in the regression coefficients. The Kalman filter based estimation allows for usage of standard methods and easy implementation of our procedure. The EM-algorithm ensures convergence to a local maximum of the likelihood. Our estimation approach in time-varying reduced-rank regression performs well in simulations, with amplified competitive advantage in time series that experience large structural changes. We illustrate the performance of our approach with a simulation study and two applications to stock index and Covid-19 case data.

时变降秩回归状态空间模型卡尔曼滤波EM算法