Horizon Bias and the Term Structure of Equity Returns
研究了个人在长期比短期更乐观的“视野偏差”能否解释股票收益期限结构的时间变化，发现分析师盈利预测衡量的视野偏差与期限溢价负相关。
Abstract We label the degree to which individuals are more optimistic at long horizons relative to short horizons as the horizon bias. We examine whether time-series variation in the horizon bias can explain the time-series variation in the equity term structure. We use analyst earnings forecasts to measure the degree of the horizon bias in the stock market. Consistent with the intuition from a stylized present value model, we find that periods of above-average horizon bias are associated with negative term premiums, whereas periods of below-average horizon bias are associated with positive term premiums. Authors have furnished an Internet Appendix, which is available on the Oxford University Press Web site next to the link to the final published paper online.