通过辅助均匀化实现可扩展的贝叶斯多重变点检测

Scalable Bayesian Multiple Changepoint Detection via Auxiliary Uniformisation

International Statistical Review · 2022
被引 5
ABS 3

中文导读

提出一种辅助均匀化前向后向采样算法,将离散时间观测转化为连续时间,使计算和内存成本从观测数降至变点数,适用于长序列变点检测。

Abstract

Summary In this paper, we perform a sparse filtering recursion for efficient changepoint detection for discrete‐time observations. We attach auxiliary event times to the chronologically ordered observations and formulate multiple changepoint problems of discrete‐time observations into continuous‐time observations. Ideally, both the computational and memory costs of the proposed auxiliary uniformisation forward‐filtering backward‐sampling algorithm can be quadratically scaled down to the number of changepoints instead of the number of observations, which would otherwise be prohibitive for a long sequence of observations. To avoid model bias, a time‐varying changepoint recurrence rate across different segments is assumed to characterise diverse scales of run lengths of the changepoints. We demonstrate the methods through simulation studies and real data analysis.

变点检测贝叶斯统计时间序列分析算法