Economy-wide impacts of road transport electrification in the EU
使用全球可计算一般均衡模型，结合技术经济假设和能源模型部署情景，量化了欧盟道路运输电气化对宏观经济和就业的影响，发现电气化降低了气候减缓成本，但导致就业从传统汽车制造转向电池生产和电力供应。
While electrification of road transport is a key component of decarbonisation, the implications for the broader economy and related jobs remain underexplored. We quantify these impacts in the EU in a global Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model, combining techno-economic assumptions about electric vehicles with deployment scenarios derived by energy models. We augment input-output tables underlying the JRC-GEM-E3 model with an explicit representation of vehicle manufacturing and upgrade the modelling of vehicle purchase and operation. Our findings illustrate that greater road transport electrification reduces the overall costs of climate mitigation, primarily driven by lower fuel costs for electric vehicles and a faster decline of battery costs. Transport electrification alters supply-chains and leads to structural shifts in employment from traditional vehicle manufacturing towards battery production, electricity supply and related investments. Finally, we expand the set of labour market indicators to cover skills and occupations, to refine the socio-economic assessments of climate policy.