Misspecified Politics and the Recurrence of Populism
构建了一个动态政治竞争模型，研究两个群体因对经济结果成因的理解不同（一方模型更简单）而导致的政策周期，解释了民粹主义为何反复出现。
We develop a dynamic model of political competition between two groups that differ in their subjective model of the data generating process for a common outcome. One group has a simpler model than the other group as they ignore some relevant policy variables. We show that policy cycles must arise and that simple world views—which can be interpreted as populist world views—imply extreme policy choices. Periods in which those with a more complex model govern increase the specification error of the simpler world view, leading the latter to overestimate the positive impact of a few extreme policy actions.