On the Persistence of the China Shock
研究了2000至2019年中国贸易冲击的持续时间，发现其对美国制造业就业、收入等负面影响持续至2019年，且主要通过退出劳动力市场而非迁移来调整。
We evaluate the duration of the China trade shock and its impact on a wide range of outcomes over the period from 2000 to 2019.The shock plateaued in 2010, enabling analysis of its effects for nearly a decade past its culmination.Adverse impacts of import competition on manufacturing employment, overall employment-population ratios, and income per capita in more trade-exposed US commuting zones are present out to 2019.Over the full study period, greater import competition implies a reduction in the manufacturing employment-population ratio of 1.54 percentage points, which is 55 percent of the observed change in the value, and the absorption of 86 percent of this net job loss via a corresponding decrease in the overall employment rate.Reductions in population head counts, which indicate net out-migration, register only for foreign-born workers and the native born who are 25-39 years old, implying that exit from work is a primary means of adjustment to trade-induced contractions in labor demand.More negatively affected regions see modest increases in the uptake of government transfers, but these transfers primarily take the form of Social Security and Medicare benefits.Adverse outcomes are more acute in regions that initially had fewer college-educated workers and were more industrially specialized.Impacts are qualitatively-but not quantitativelysimilar to those caused by the decline of employment in coal production since