War, pandemics, and modern economic growth in Europe
本文利用长程依赖统计概念，识别欧洲经济体制的结构性断裂点，发现黑死病和世界大战造成最持久冲击，黑死病在非马尔萨斯经济体（如英国和荷兰）反而促进了人均产出和人口增长，开启了现代经济增长和欧亚大分流。
This paper contributes to the debate on Europe's modern economic growth using the statistical concept of long-range dependence. Different regimes, defined as periods between two successive endogenously estimated structural shocks, matched episodes of pandemics and war. The most persistent shocks occurred at the time of the Black Death and the twentieth century's world wars. Our findings confirm that the Black Death often resulted in higher income levels but reject the view of a uniform long-term response to the Plague. In fact, we find a negative impact on incomes in non-Malthusian economies. In the North Sea Area (Britain and the Netherlands), the Plague was followed by positive trend growth in output per capita and population, heralding the onset of modern economic growth and the Great Divergence in Eurasia.