Exact Bayesian Inference for Level-Set Cox Processes with Piecewise Constant Intensity Function
提出一种针对分段常数强度函数的多维Cox过程的精确贝叶斯推断方法，利用潜高斯过程的水平集灵活划分空间，通过伪边际无穷维MCMC算法实现无空间离散化近似的精确推断，适用于大型数据集分析。
AbstractThis article proposes a new methodology to perform Bayesian inference for a class of multidimensional Cox processes in which the intensity function is piecewise constant. Poisson processes with piecewise constant intensity functions are believed to be suitable to model a variety of point process phenomena and, given its simpler structure, are expected to provide more precise inference when compared to processes with nonparametric and continuously varying intensity functions. The partition of the space domain is flexibly determined by a level-set function of a latent Gaussian process. Despite the intractability of the likelihood function and the infinite dimensionality of the parameter space, inference is performed exactly, in the sense that no space discretization approximation is used and MCMC error is the only source of inaccuracy. That is achieved by using retrospective sampling techniques and devising a pseudo-marginal infinite-dimensional MCMC algorithm that converges to the exact target posterior distribution. Computational efficiency is favored by considering a nearest neighbor Gaussian process, allowing for the analysis of large datasets. An extension to consider spatiotemporal models is also proposed. The efficiency of the proposed methodology is investigated in simulated examples and its applicability is illustrated in the analysis of some real point process datasets.Keywords: Gaussian processNNGPPoisson estimatorPseudo-marginal MCMCRetrospective sampling AcknowledgmentsThe authors would like to thank Gareth Roberts for insightful discussions about the MCMC algorithm.Additional informationFundingThe first author would like to thank FAPEMIG—Grant PPM-00745-18 and CNPq—Grant 310433/2020-7, for financial support. The second author would like to thank CAPES, CNPq and FAPEMIG for financial support.