On the use of current and forward-looking data in monetary policy: a behavioural macroeconomic approach
通过行为宏观经济学模型，研究了在货币政策中使用前瞻性数据是否优于当前数据，发现严格通胀目标制下使用前瞻性数据会降低政策质量，而双重使命制下效果更好，同时即时预测有助于改善政策质量。
Abstract We analyse the question of whether the use of forward-looking data in monetary policy is to be preferred over the use of current data. We use a behavioural macroeconomic model that generates periods of tranquillity alternating with crisis periods characterized by fat tails in the distribution of output gap. We find that in a strict inflation targeting (SIT) regime, the use of forward-looking data leads to a lower quality of monetary policymaking than in a dual mandate monetary policy regime, because the first regime creates more extreme movements in output and inflation than the second one. We also find that nowcasting tends to improve the quality of monetary policy, especially in a SIT regime. Finally, we provide a case study of monetary policies in the USA and the eurozone during 2000–20.