Skin in the Game: Operating Growth, Firm Performance, and Future Stock Returns
研究发现由产品市场利益相关者融资的经营增长与未来公司绩效正相关，但投资者和分析师低估了其正面影响，导致高经营增长公司的股票回报可预测且盈利预测过于悲观。
Abstract Prior research documents that asset growth is negatively associated with future firm performance. In contrast, we show that growth financed by product market stakeholders (i.e., “operating growth”) is positively associated with future firm performance. Investors and security analysts underestimate the positive effects of operating growth on future performance, resulting in return predictability and overly pessimistic earnings forecasts for firms with high operating growth. Future stock returns largely concentrate around subsequent earnings announcements with declining magnitudes, consistent with the error-in-expectation explanation. Results from cross-sectional tests further support the hypothesis that operating growth signals high future performance but investors underreact to it.