On the effects of COVID-19 on food prices in India: a time-varying approach
使用时变自回归模型分析印度五个地区167个市场的七种食品价格序列，发现疫情冲击导致价格持续非对称波动且不收敛，不同食品受影响程度存在差异。
Abstract Since the inception of the novel coronavirus, immense research efforts have been made to understand how several economic indicators, including food security, would be affected. With India racing behind the United States in terms of daily infection rate and being a country with challenging food security issues, it is important to investigate how the presence of the pandemic has influenced the dynamics of food prices in the country. This paper considers seven price series from 167 markets across the five regions in India as well as the growth rate of COVID-19 infection. The paper uses a time-varying autoregressive model to investigate the nonlinear dynamics of food prices in relation to the pandemic in India. The resultant models reveal strong asymmetric properties with shock-inflicted persistence, which appear not to converge over the simulation period. Moreover, in terms of the location of the burden of the pandemic impact, we find a food product divide.