Integrated Approach for Project Risk Assessment and Evaluation Under Risk Interactions
提出一种两阶段方法，先评估风险交互网络中的边和节点，再通过考虑风险规避程度的指标和仿真模型评价网络，并用国际建设项目验证，为项目经理提供更准确的风险分析信息。
The risks found in project management have a spatio-temporal effect and can interact with each other. Such interactions can be presented as a risk interaction network (RIN), with the nodes as the risks and the edges as the interaction. This article devises a twofold process to assess the RIN, namely, 1) a three-step procedure for the division, weight elicitation, and aggregation to assess the edges, and 2) a two-step procedure comprising the node classification and weight elicitation to qualify the nodes. The RIN evaluation takes the assessed RIN as the input, including an index accommodating the project manager's level of risk-aversion and a simulation-based network model for computing the index. A graphical user interface is developed to highlight the data collection and processing. An international construction project is provided to validate the proposed approach of RIN assessment and evaluation. The results inform that the proposed index provides more accurate information for risk analysis.