Homo Heuristicus: From Risk Management to Managing Uncertainty in Large-Scale Infrastructure Projects
本文指出大型基础设施项目成本估算常出现偏差，统计方法难以应对不确定性，提出采用启发式方法（即基于经验法则的决策）来设定成本应急储备，并呼吁开发一套生态理性的启发式工具箱。
Large-scale infrastructure projects tend to experience variances between estimated and final costs. Governments, in response, have been using statistical methods (including probabilistic approaches) such as reference class forecasting to try and mitigate cost overruns. While helpful in accommodating risk, such statistical methods often fail to account for a project's cost uncertainty. To reduce cost variance under uncertainty, it is necessary to use heuristics when formulating an infrastructure project's cost contingency. This article argues a need to adopt a vision of human nature described as <italic xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">Homo heuristicus</i> (heuristics-using-person). We provide awareness and rationale for developing an “adaptive toolbox” of heuristics for ecologically rational and contextually aligned cost contingency decision-making. However, the selection, recognition, and evaluation heuristics for determining cost uncertainty have yet to be examined. Thus, future research is required to cultivate the heuristics needed to address the uncertainty that surrounds the determination of a cost contingency.