Tax Policy and Lumpy Investment Behaviour: Evidence from China’s VAT Reform
研究了中国2009年增值税改革如何通过影响投资的块状特征（即投资是否集中发生）来刺激企业投资，发现改革主要通过增加投资峰值来推动投资增长，对政策设计有参考价值。
Abstract We incorporate the lumpy nature of firm-level investment into the study of how tax policy affects investment behaviour. We show that tax policies can directly impact the lumpiness of investment. Extensive-margin responses to tax policy are key to understanding the effects of different tax reforms and to designing effective stimulus policies. We illustrate these results by studying China’s 2009 VAT reform, which lowered the tax cost of investment and reduced partial irreversibility—the price gap between new and used capital. Using comprehensive tax survey data and a difference-in-differences design, we estimate a 36$\%$ relative investment increase that is driven by investment spikes. Using a dynamic investment model that fits the reduced-form effects of the reform, we show that policies that directly reduce the likelihood of firm inaction are more effective at stimulating investment.