Estimating Trends in Male Earnings Volatility with the Panel Study of Income Dynamics
使用PSID数据更新了美国男性收入波动的估计，发现1970-80年代波动翻倍，2000年代后先升后降，至2018年增幅仅为1970-80年代的五分之一，且结论不受样本流失等问题影响。
The Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID) has been the workhorse dataset used to estimate trends in U.S. earnings volatility at the individual level. We provide updated estimates for male earnings volatility using additional years of data. The analysis confirms prior work showing upward trends in the 1970s and 1980s, with a near doubling of the level of volatility over that period. The results also confirm prior work showing a resumption of an upward trend starting in the 2000s, but the new years of data available show volatility to be falling in recent years. By 2018, volatility had grown by a modest amount relative to the 1990s, with a growth rate only one-fifth the magnitude of that in the 1970s and 1980s. We show that neither attrition or item nonresponse bias, nor other issues with the PSID, affect these conclusions.