Exchange Rate Reconnect
研究发现，2007年后全球风险偏好指标对汇率有显著解释力，且美国购买外国债券与这些指标及汇率高度相关，表明美元作为国际避险货币的角色在金融危机后增强。
Abstract It is surprisingly difficult to find economic variables that strongly comove with exchange rates, a phenomenon codified in a large literature as “exchange rate disconnect.” We demonstrate that a variety of common proxies for global risk appetite, which did not comove with exchange rates prior to 2007, have provided significant in-sample explanatory power for currencies since then. Furthermore, during the 2007–2012 period, U.S. purchases of foreign bonds were highly correlated with these risk measures and with exchange rates. Our results support the narrative that the U.S. dollar's role as an international and safe-haven currency has surged since the global financial crisis.