Banking on the Boom, Tripped by the Bust: Banks and the World War I Agricultural Price Shock
研究美国银行如何应对一战期间的农田繁荣，发现新银行扩张更激进、存款保险放大风险、资本要求起缓冲作用，且扩张最猛的银行在战后萧条中倒闭概率更高，加剧了土地价格下跌。
Abstract How do banks respond to asset booms? This paper examines (i) how U.S. banks responded to the World War I farmland boom; (ii) the impact of regulation; and (iii) how bank closures exacerbated the postwar bust. The boom encouraged new bank formation and balance sheet expansion (especially by new banks). Deposit insurance amplified the impact of rising crop prices on bank portfolios, while higher minimum capital requirements dampened the effects. Banks that responded most aggressively to the asset boom had a higher probability of closing in the bust, and counties with more bank closures experienced larger declines in land prices.