The Effect of Fertility on Mothers’ Labor Supply over the Last Two Centuries
利用1787年至2015年间103个国家的441次人口普查和调查数据，研究发现生育对母亲劳动供给的影响在低发展水平下接近零，在高发展水平下显著为负，且这一负向关系在历史与现代数据中稳定存在。
Abstract Using a compiled data set of 441 censuses and surveys from between 1787 and 2015, representing 103 countries and 51.4 million mothers, we find that: (i) the effect of fertility on labour supply is typically indistinguishable from zero at low levels of development and large and negative at higher levels of development, (ii) the negative gradient is stable across historical and contemporary data, and (iii) the results are robust to identification strategies, model specification, and data construction and scaling. Our results are consistent with changes in the sectoral and occupational structure of female jobs and a standard labour–leisure model.