House price volatility in China: Demand versus supply
使用DSGE模型研究中国房价波动的传导机制，发现住房生产率和政府土地供给冲击是房价波动的主要来源，短期贡献37%，长期贡献32%。
Abstract This paper studies the transmission mechanisms that underlie China's house price fluctuations using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model. The model is estimated with Bayesian methods, which accounts well for business cycle properties of the housing market. Results show that shocks to housing productivity and the government land supply to housing developers are the primary contributors to house price volatility, accounting for 37% of house price volatility in the short run and 32% in the long run. The importance of housing valuation shocks and shocks to migration only increases in models without the supply side of the housing market.