最优动态信息获取

Optimal Dynamic Information Acquisition

Econometrica · 2022
被引 47
人大 A+FT50ABS 4*

中文导读

研究决策者在做决定前如何动态获取信息,发现最优策略是等待一个泊松信号,该信号足够精确以立即行动,否则继续寻求更精确但更稀少的信号。

Abstract

I study a dynamic model in which a decision‐maker (DM) acquires information about the payoffs of different alternatives prior to making a decision. The model's key feature is the flexibility of information: the DM can choose any dynamic signal process as an information source, subject to a flow cost that depends on the informativeness of the signal. Under the optimal policy, the DM acquires a signal that arrives according to a Poisson process . The optimal Poisson signal confirms the DM's prior belief and is sufficiently precise to warrant immediate action. Over time, given the absence of the arrival of a Poisson signal, the DM continues seeking an increasingly precise but less frequent Poisson signal.

动态信息获取泊松信号最优策略信号精度