Income Shocks, Bride Price, and Child Marriage in Turkey
利用土耳其1998-2018年人口健康调查数据，研究发现降雨冲击导致的负向收入冲击在彩礼盛行的省份显著提高了女孩15岁前结婚的概率，表明童婚是家庭应对收入冲击的策略。
Abstract Early marriage persists in many countries in spite of legal prohibition. The role of income shocks and bride price norms is investigated in the context of Turkey. Using data from the Turkey Demographic and Health Surveys 1998 to 2018, rainfall shocks are exploited as an exogenous source of variation of household income. To study the role of marital payments, measures of shocks are interacted with a province-level indicator based on past prevalence of bride price. Estimation results show that girls exposed to a large negative shock during adolescence have a higher probability of being married before 15, if living in provinces with a high prevalence of bride price. More arranged and forced marriages are found after severe shocks in those provinces. Results suggest that daughter marriage, as a response to mitigate negative income shocks, is not limited to the poorest countries, and still contributes to household strategies in Turkey.