Scuttle for shelter: flight-to-safety and political uncertainty during the Spanish Second Republic
研究了西班牙第二共和国时期，投资者如何因政治不确定性而抛售股票、买入政府债券，即避险行为，并发现政治不确定性导致股票市场压力增大和预期收益差异。
Abstract The Spanish Second Republic was a unique experiment of democratization in interwar Europe, which was characterized by extreme levels of political uncertainty. We find that investors responded to shifts in uncertainty by selling stocks in favor of government bonds—a behavior known as flight-to-safety. Additionally, we find that political uncertainty caused stock market stress and induced significant differences in the cross-section of expected stock returns, consistent with the exposures to political uncertainty. The fact that investors recurrently scuttled to shelter into government bonds suggests that they did not perceive a radical change in the political regime as an immediate and credible threat.