Productivity Debacle in the UK: Do Post‐crisis Firm Cohorts Explain the Performance Puzzle?
研究了2008年金融危机后英国企业生产率下降的原因，发现2011-2016年间生产率低迷主要由服务业中新成立的企业驱动，尤其是金融服务业产出增长停滞和其他服务业劳动力充裕导致绩效拉平。
Abstract This paper investigates how the aftermath of the 2008 crisis affected firm productivity in the UK, focusing particularly on the cohort effect of firms established after 2008 – a previously overlooked aspect of the crisis – as well as the interaction with access to credit, which we test using firm‐specific and time‐varying credit scores. For identification, a matched sample is used based on credit score, firm age, size and ownership status, combining propensity score matching with difference‐in‐differences. While we find evidence that smaller firm size and changes in credit conditions affect productivity, about half of the difference in productivity remains unexplained. When we extend the matching analysis to examine across sectors and cohorts, we find that the low productivity performance during the years 2011–2016 is driven primarily by newer firms in the services sector, rather than in manufacturing. Within services, the underlying productivity puzzle is driven by a cessation of output growth in high‐productivity financial services, while abundant labour supply has led to a ‘levelling down’ of performance of newer firms in other services, converging towards the relatively low‐productivity manufacturing.