Technical analysis: Novel insights on contrarian trading
利用基于新闻情绪的新数据集，系统检验技术分析指标对资产收益的预测能力，发现技术分析情绪与未来收益关系不显著，但过去市场收益和技术分析情绪能负向预测未来技术分析情绪，支持逆向交易假说。
Abstract We analyze the predictive power of technical analysis with a novel data set based on news sentiment that allows to systematically examine a set of technical analysis indicators over an extensive time period. We do not find much statistically significant relationships with the examined indicators and future asset returns, and we almost do not find any alphas in trading strategies based on technical analysis sentiment. We find evidence for a contrarian‐based hypothesis: past market returns and technical analysis sentiment are able to predict future technical analysis sentiment with a negative relationship.