Emerging smart city, transport and energy trends in urban settings: Results of a pan-European foresight exercise with 120 experts
通过文献综述和两轮德尔菲调查，120位专家评估了智慧城市、交通和能源领域到2030年的发展趋势，识别出18个高概率变化和17个可能变化，为欧洲城市政策制定和科研规划提供参考。
Forecasting future trends constitutes a key process for supporting urban and territorial policy making in general. In this work, we explore how the domains of smart cities, smart transport, and smart energy will evolve until 2030 from a scientific and technological perspective, as a means to inform future policies for urban development in Europe. We started our work with an extensive review of recent and relevant research, covering policy and market reports, scientific journal articles, and other scientific publications. Then, a two-round Delphi survey with 120 field experts was conducted to assess the plausibility of the literature review findings to materialize until 2030. According to our empirical findings, there will be several speedy and structural changes in the three domains: we were able to identify a set of 18 statements that are highly probable to become reality in the next decade, whereas 17 statements were classified as plausible but not highly probable, and three statements raised controversiality. This work provides significant added value in supporting territorial policymakers' and stakeholders' decision making under uncertainty, as well as in designing highly relevant research agendas, attuned to contemporary and emerging trends.