Outcome bias in self-evaluations: Quasi-experimental field evidence from Swiss driving license exams
利用瑞士驾照考试的准实验数据，发现理论考试勉强通过的考生在后续路考中通过率显著低于勉强未通过的考生，且前者在路考中因临时决策失误被扣分更多，表明人们存在结果偏差，即根据结果好坏而非决策质量来评价自身行为。
Exploiting a quasi-experimental field setting, we examine whether people are outcome biased when self-evaluating their past decisions. Using data from Swiss driving license exams, we find that candidates who narrowly passed the theoretical driving exam are significantly less likely to pass the subsequent practical driving exam – which is taken several months after the theoretical exam – than those who narrowly failed. Those candidates who passed the theoretical exam on their first attempt receive more objections regarding their momentary, on-the-spot decisions in the practical exam, consistent with the idea that the underlying behavioral difference is worse preparation.