Can Risk Perception Alter Son Preference? Evidence from Gender-Imbalanced Rural China
利用2018年性别失衡后果调查数据，通过结构方程模型发现，风险感知会显著降低人们口头表达的男孩偏好，但传统性别角色观念和儿子价值观念反而被风险感知强化，抵消了部分削弱效果。
It is well established that son preference is the crucial driver for sex ratio imbalance, and that there are risks stemming from such imbalance. Whether risks associated with a gender-imbalanced society may alter son preference will be explored in this study, which has so far received scant scholarly attention. Using data from the Consequences of Gender Imbalance Survey conducted in 2018, exploiting structural equation modelling, this paper shows that risk perception of gender imbalance has a significant and negative effect on stated son preference; however, entrenched traditional norms underpinning the institution of son preference, measured as gender role attitudes and the value of sons, are reinforced by risk perception. The effect of risk perception on weakening stated son preference is suppressed by gender role attitudes and the value of sons which are still upholding stated son preference. Overall, the effects of risk perception and social norms are additive, influencing stated son preference simultaneously, but traditional norms act as counteracting forces. This study makes an important step toward shedding light on both continuity and change in son preference in gender-imbalanced rural China, and offers new perspectives for future research.