Out of Bounds: Do SPF Respondents Have Anchored Inflation Expectations?
研究发现，自2012年美联储设定2%通胀目标后，多数专业预测者的长期通胀预期波动较大且偏离目标，提出“边界锚定”指标揭示预期变化趋势。
Abstract Since the Federal Open Market Committee announced a 2% inflation target in 2012, the median long‐run inflation forecast of professional forecasters has been near target. We show, however, that most individual forecasters' long‐run inflation expectations fluctuate substantially, with sizeable departures from target. We propose a new “bounds anchoring” indicator based on deviations of individuals' long‐run forecasts from target. This indicator sheds new light on gradual changes in expectations since the 2012 announcement. We find that bounds anchoring gradually strengthened in the years following the target announcement, but that this trend has recently started to reverse.