Bayesian estimation of multivariate panel probits with higher‐order network interdependence and an application to firms' global market participation in Guangdong
提出一种贝叶斯估计框架，处理短面板中大量截面单元在多个网络域中的相互依赖性，允许灵活建模邻居衰减函数和多个未知重要性的依赖渠道，并应用于广东机械企业出口与外资持股研究。
Summary This paper proposes a Bayesian estimation framework for panel data sets with binary dependent variables where a large number of cross‐sectional units are observed over a short period of time and cross‐sectional units are interdependent in more than a single network domain. The latter provides for a substantial degree of flexibility towards modeling the decay function in network neighborliness (e.g., by disentangling the importance of rings of neighbors) or towards allowing for several channels of interdependence whose relative importance is unknown ex ante. Besides the flexible parameterization of cross‐sectional dependence, the approach allows for simultaneity of the equations. These features should make the approach interesting for applications in a host of contexts involving structural and reduced‐form models of multivariate choice problems at micro‐, meso‐, and macro‐economic levels. The paper outlines the estimation approach, illustrates its suitability by simulation examples, and provides an application to study exporting and foreign ownership among potentially interdependent firms in the specialized and transport machinery sector in the province of Guangdong.