Female jockeys - what are the odds?
研究利用英国赛马20年数据，通过赔率分析发现市场系统性地低估女骑师表现，且近年低估趋势加剧，表明歧视和确认偏差影响市场效率。
Under-representation of women persists in many industries and represents an important area of concern for society. We use a revealed preference approach to test for bias against females in an underexplored environment. Whilst much use has been made of the financial industry to examine how market prices reveal implicit views on the relative productivity of men and women, our setting offers advantages through both volume of data and unambiguity of outcome. Over a 20-year period, the effect of jockey gender on fixed price betting odds was examined in National Hunt racing. Employing censored regression to account for non-finishers we find female jockeys to be underestimated by the UK betting market. Results indicate an increasing trend for underestimation in recent years, despite growing representation and rising performance levels of female jockeys. We conclude that mistake-based discrimination and confirmation bias may be impacting efficiency in the betting market. The market might recognise some improvement in female performance but may be failing to adapt at the speed with which female jockeys are professionalising.