Scenario-Driven Adaptation to Emergent Risks
提出投资管理流程中持续场景分析的必要性，介绍其组织原则、构建过程、量化方法及在投资组合中的应用，并用新冠疫情、通胀飙升和俄乌冲突等案例说明。
In order to be resilient to unmodeled risks, an investment management process needs to incorporate a discipline of continuous scenario analysis. The authors describe the essential elements of such a discipline: key organizational and operating principles, the scenario building process, quantitative specification of scenarios, and application to portfolio management. They illustrate with several recent case studies: the COVID-19 pandemic, the 2021–2022 surge in global inflation, and the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine. They also list some potential pitfalls of scenario analysis.