Populist Persuasion in Electoral Campaigns: Evidence from Bryan's Unique Whistle-Stop Tour
研究了1896年美国民主党总统候选人布莱恩的全国巡回演讲对选民投票的影响，发现其平均提升了约1个百分点的得票率，主要说服了未结盟的产业工人。
Abstract This paper examines the effect of campaign appearances in the context of the one-sided nationwide tour by William J. Bryan, the Democratic US presidential candidate in 1896. During this electoral campaign, Bryan undertook an unprecedented whistle-stop train tour, while the Republican candidate followed a front-porch campaign. To identify the causal effect of campaign speeches, we exploit several estimation strategies, including a within-county difference-in-differences design and a neighbour-pair fixed effect estimator. We find that campaign visits by Bryan increased his vote share by about one percentage point on average. This increase likely stems from the persuasion of previously non-aligned industrial workers.