The Effects of Tax Changes on Economic Activity: A Narrative Approach to Frequent Anticipations
通过分析美国电视新闻中的税收消息，研究税收变化的预期对经济活动的影响，发现预期未来减税会刺激当前经济活动，而预期增税则相反。
Abstract This paper studies the effects of anticipations of tax changes on economic activity through the release of tax news in the media in the United States. I provide a measure of anticipations by exploiting the content of television news. This information typically flows faster than standard measures of gross domestic product, thus I propose a mixed frequency dynamic factor model to estimate both the economic activity latent factor and the effects of anticipated tax shocks on it. I find that one-month-ahead anticipations of tax cuts significantly stimulate current economic activity while those of tax increases produce the opposite effect.