Cognitive Change Before Old Age (11 to 70) Predicts Cognitive Change During Old Age (70 to 82)
基于洛锡安出生队列1936研究，发现11至70岁认知能力增长越多的人，70至82岁认知衰退越慢，有助于识别老年认知衰退高风险人群。
Identifying predictors of cognitive decline in old age helps us understand its mechanisms and identify those at greater risk. Here, we examined how cognitive change from ages 11 to 70 is associated with cognitive change at older ages (70 to 82 years) in the Lothian Birth Cohort 1936 longitudinal study ( N = 1,091 at recruitment). Using latent-growth-curve models, we estimated rates of change from ages 70 to 82 in general cognitive ability ( g) and in three cognitive domains: visuospatial, memory, and processing speed. We found that g accounted for 71.3% of interindividual change variance. Greater cognitive gain from ages 11 to 70 predicted slower decline in g over 12 subsequent years (β = 0.163, p = .001), independently of cognitive level in childhood and at age 70, and domain-specific change beyond g. These results contribute to the goal of identifying people at higher risk of age-related cognitive decline.