Investor Sentiment, Sovereign Debt Mispricing, and Economic Outcomes
研究发现，能以低于基本面所对应的利差借款的国家（因投资者看好其前景），中期更易出现经济困难。乐观情绪降低中期增长并增加财政危机概率，利用错误定价信息可将增长预测误差降低15%。
Abstract We find that countries able to borrow at spreads that seem low given fundamentals (e.g., because investors are bullish regarding the country’s future) are more likely to develop medium-term difficulties. We establish this by regressing spreads on fundamentals. Subsequently deploying first-stage residuals in a second-stage regression suggests that an optimistic sentiment reduces growth in the medium term while increasing odds of fiscal crises. Incorporating information from our mispricing estimate reduces the root-mean-square error of out-of-sample growth forecasts by 15%. This supports theories of sentiment affecting the business cycle and suggests that countries should not solely rely on spreads when setting fiscal policy.