Fast Rises, Slow Declines: Asymmetric Unemployment Dynamics with Matching Frictions
研究发现美国失业率在经济衰退时快速上升、扩张时缓慢下降，呈现正偏态，而教科书中的搜索匹配模型却产生反事实的负偏态，且模型无法复制这种非对称性，即使它能模拟失业率的实际波动幅度。
Abstract I argue that the textbook search‐and‐matching model cannot generate the observed cyclical asymmetry in the unemployment rate. In the United States, the unemployment rate rises quickly and abruptly at the onset of recessions and declines slowly and gradually during expansions. This pattern produces positive skewness in the distribution of unemployment rate changes, while the model generates a counterfactually negative skewness. Moreover, I show that the model's inability to replicate the cyclical asymmetry in the data stands regardless of its ability to generate realistic volatility in unemployment rate fluctuations.