The dynamic effects of monsoon rainfall shocks on agricultural yield, wages, and food prices in India*
研究发现印度季风降雨冲击对农业产量的影响高度不对称：干旱导致产量大幅下降，而降雨过多影响很小。干旱后的产量损失引发工资持续下降和食品价格持续上涨长达五年，并分析了内部迁移和食品套利贸易的决定因素。
Abstract This paper shows that, first, the effects of monsoon rainfall shocks on agricultural yield in India are highly asymmetric: yield falls strongly after droughts, whereas excessive rainfall has only little effects. Second, our key novel finding is that the short‐lived yield loss after a widespread drought elicits a persistent decline (increase) in wages (food prices), which lasts for up to five years. Third, affiliation to the same National Sample Survey region (and thus to the same state) seems to be a key determinant of internal migration, whereas distance appears more relevant for food arbitrage trading.