Pre-Test-Market Models: Validation and Managerial Implications
分析了预测试市场模型ASSESSOR的预测准确性，发现调整后预测误差为1.12个百分点，63%的产品通过预测试，其中66%在测试市场成功。贝叶斯决策分析表明信息有价值，建议多数情况下同时使用预测试和测试市场。
The predictive accuracy of a widely used pre-test-market model (ASSESSOR) is analyzed. The standard deviation between pre-test-market and test-market shares is 1.99 share points before adjustments for achieved awareness, distribution, and sampling and 1.12 share points after adjustment. Sixty-three percent of those products tested passed the pre-test screen and 66% of these were subsequently successful in test market. A Bayesian decision analysis model is formulated and a “typical” case shows a positive value of information. Although some conditions are identified under which a test market may be bypassed, in the authors’ opinion both pre-test and test-market procedures should be used in all but exceptional situations.