Terms of trade during the first globalization: new evidence, new results
通过分析1800-1913年全球贸易条件的新数据集，发现核心与外围国家的贸易条件趋势差异显著，主要由进口价格驱动，且波动性下降，对去工业化观点提出质疑。
Abstract By analyzing a new dataset of terms of trade covering the whole world during the “first globalization” (1800–1913), this article finds that trends of terms of trade varied significantly, both within the periphery and the core, and were mainly driven by import prices. Volatility declined because price spikes became less frequent and export prices became increasingly stable. We find little evidence of de-industrialization. Consistent with our trends, prices of primary products, similarly to those of manufactures, were falling and so was their volatility. These results sit uneasily with the view that terms of trade played a crucial role in holding back the development of peripheral countries before World War I.