THE DYNAMIC EFFECTS OF MULTILATERAL TRADE POLICY WITH EXPORT CHURNING
研究了出口更替（新进入或退出出口商的双边出口份额）如何随出口目的地变化，并构建模型预测与次要目的地的贸易自由化带来更高出口增长，数据支持这一结论。
Abstract This article examines the relationship between export churning and the aggregate response to trade policy. I show that export churning—the share of bilateral exports by new or exiting exporters—varies systematically across export destinations and build a multicountry model with destination‐specific investments in exporting capacity that is consistent with churning patterns. The model then predicts that trade liberalizations with minor export destinations deliver higher bilateral export growth than liberalizations with major export destinations, and the data support this prediction. Furthermore, the aggregate effects of trade policy depend critically on the pattern of export churning in the model.