Credit Rationing and Financial Disorder
构建了一个存在违约风险和道德风险的贷款人行为模型，用以确定违约溢价和信贷配给条件，并引入预期形成的认知偏差来解释经济如何变得易受金融危机冲击以及脆弱性为何随时间增加。
ABSTRACT We develop a model of lender behavior in the presence of default risk and moral hazard that determines default premiums and identifies the conditions under which borrowers are rationed. A hypothesis regarding a cognitive bias in the formation of expectations provides a dynamic component to our analysis and allows us to explain how an economy becomes vulnerable to a financial crisis and why vulnerability may increase over time.