Expectations and the Effects of Monetary Policy
研究实际联邦基金利率变化衡量的货币政策变动对产出、通胀及调查预期的预测能力，发现政策变动对实际产出的影响大于对预期产出的影响，违反理性预期，但通胀预期无此现象。
This paper examines the predictive power of shifts in monetary policy, as measured by changes in the real federal funds rate, for output, inflation, and survey expectations of these variables. We find that policy shifts have larger effects on actual output than on expected output; thus, policy predicts errors in output expectations, a violation of rational expectations. Policy shifts do not predict errors in inflation expectations. We explain these results with a model in which agents systematically underestimate the effects of policy on aggregate demand. This model helps to explain the real effects of policy.