Optimal Contact Tracing and Social Distancing Policies to Suppress A New Infectious Disease
在易感-感染-康复模型中研究如何最优地抑制传染病，发现关键权衡在于控制措施的强度与持续时间，而非健康与经济成本，且接触追踪效率至关重要。
Abstract This paper studies the suppression of an infectious disease in the canonical susceptible-infectious-recovered model. It derives three results. First, if technically feasible, the optimal response to a sufficiently small outbreak is halting transmissions instead of building up immunity through infections. Second, the crucial trade-off is not between health and economic costs, but between the intensity and duration of control measures. A simple formula of observables characterises the optimum. Third, the total cost depends critically on the efficiency of contact tracing, since it allows relaxing costly social distancing without increasing transmissions. A calibration to the COVID-19 pandemic illustrates the theoretical findings.