Agricultural diversification, productivity, and food security across time and space
用分位数自回归和连接函数模型分析意大利小麦和玉米产量的时空风险，揭示区域多样化与生产率增长对粮食安全的影响，为评估粮食不安全福利成本提供新信息。
Abstract This article presents an investigation of agricultural production risk over time and across space and its implications for food security. The econometric approach involves a Quantile Autoregressive (QAR) model and a copula to provide a flexible representation of the distribution of yield risk and its evolution over time and across space. The analysis relies on a two‐step estimation method to evaluate the multivariate yield distribution and its spatial and temporal evolution. Linkages between agricultural production risk and the economics of food security are explored, with implications for the welfare cost of food insecurity. The approach is illustrated in an econometric application to regional wheat and corn yields in Italy. The analysis provides new and useful information on the evolving linkages between agricultural production risk, productivity, and food security. Our integrated approach documents the role of regional diversification and of productivity growth along with their effects on food security.