The impact of the recovery fund on EU regions: a spatial general equilibrium analysis
使用空间一般均衡模型评估欧盟复苏基金的宏观经济和分配效应，发现拨款可使2026年GDP增长约0.85%，长期乘数达3.25，但按人口分配会损害区域凝聚力。
We use a spatial general equilibrium model to assess the macroeconomic and distributional impact of the European Commission’s Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF). We employ two alternative regional distributions of investments: one based on the regional share of population only, and the other based on Cohesion Policy criteria. Our results suggest that the disbursement of RRF grants would lead to an increase in the European Union’s gross domestic product (GDP) of approximately 0.85% in 2026, corresponding to a present value GDP multiplier of 1.22. The latter rises to 3.25 in the long run. Under the population criterion, GDP impacts are higher relative to the Cohesion criterion, at the detriment of territorial cohesion.