Measuring inflation expectations in interwar Britain
本文收集高频数据测量两次世界大战之间英国的通货膨胀预期，发现预期变化是英国从大萧条中早期复苏的重要原因。
Abstract What caused the recovery from the British Great Depression? A leading explanation – the ‘expectations channel’ – suggests that a shift in expected inflation lowered real interest rates and stimulated consumption and investment. However, few studies have measured, or tested the economic consequences of, inflation expectations. In this paper, we collect high‐frequency information from primary and secondary sources to measure expected inflation in the United Kingdom between the wars. A high‐frequency vector autoregression suggests that inflation expectations were an important source of the early stages of economic recovery in interwar Britain.